• Some economists warn that the Communist Party's plan for China to become 'a rich and powerful country' by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the republic, will be difficult to achieve, in part, due to its demographic problems. | REUTERS
    Some economists warn that the Communist Party's plan for China to become “a rich and powerful country” by 2049, the 100th anniversary of the founding of the republic, will be difficult to achieve, in part, due to its demographic problems. | REUTERS

China looks set to become the first country to get old before it gets rich.

Its declining birth rate looks almost impossible to reverse, a trajectory with profound implications for its economic and social prospects. The Chinese government is well aware of the problem and the dangers. Unfortunately, however, none of the responses looks like they will work.

Japan too must be alert to the repercussions of China’s aging. This country’s experience with a graying population may provide some ways to work with its neighbor and ease the transition to a grayer society.

According to census data released earlier this week, China’s birth rate fell for a fifth consecutive year to hit a record low in 2021. There were just 10.62 million births last year, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics, an 11.6% drop from 2020.

While that is an improvement over the 18% fall from 2019 to 2020, it is still the lowest level since the founding of Communist China in 1949. Births outpaced deaths — barely — allowing the total population to increase by 480,000 to 1.4126 billion people. The country’s natural growth rate has plunged to 0.034%; it was only lower during the Great Leap Forward, when tens of millions of people died as a result of Mao’s disastrous economic policies.

KEYWORDS

In a time of both misinformation and too much information, quality journalism is more crucial than ever.
By subscribing, you can help us get the story right.

SUBSCRIBE NOW